Pre-match outlook: A tough one where “neither side feels secure”
This round’s La Liga clash of the week brings together 2 teams who have both been “short on confidence” lately.
After 2 straight defeats to start the season (1-4 to Real Madrid, 0-1 to Betis), Real Sociedad have bounced back from rock bottom and are unbeaten in their last 3 rounds, with 2 wins and 1 draw — 2-1 at home to Espanyol, 3-2 away to Elche, and 0-0 at home to Celta. Matarazzo’s side are finding their rhythm again. But the data doesn’t lie: Real Sociedad currently have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 7 points, and sit 11th, scoring 6 goals and conceding 8, with their attack tied for the worst in the league. Even more striking, in their last 6 home games at Anoeta, they have just 1 win, 2 draws and 3 losses, with a home win rate of just 17% — the label “home fortress” has nothing to do with Real Sociedad these days.
For Atlético de Madrid, it’s a case of “the quality is there, but the form isn’t.” They have 2 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss in 4 league rounds, with 7 points, and just lost 1-2 away to Liverpool in the Champions League midweek. Add their earlier defeat to Athletic Bilbao, and they have lost their last 2 matches in a row. Simeone’s side have been less solid defensively this season — they have conceded 6 goals in 4 rounds, which is below par for a team built on “steel-hard defending.”
Score prediction and conclusion
Taking the underlying stats, injuries and suspensions, fitness and referee factors into account, my view is:
Pick: Atlético de Madrid to win
Score prediction: First choice 1-2
Total goals: 2-3 goals